At Larry Johnson's
AND AFTER? BY HELMHOLTZ-SMITH
January 28, 2023by HELMHOLTZ-SMITH
I don't know what the Russians are going to do in Ukraine and no one else outside their high command either. There have certainly been a lot of wrong predictions.
Leaving aside the Western propaganda mill, serious observers seem to have the timing wrong.
We know that the balance of power favors Russia but we expected things to happen more quickly.
We agree that Moscow expected something shorter, less bloody and faster at first and was probably surprised by the resistance of the Kiev regime and the haphazard support from NATO.
Consequently, there was a reassessment of the situation and the call for new forces.
So far, we're okay - it's time for the next step that we seem to be wrong.
I have thought about why this is so and have come to the following conclusions. By now, anyone paying attention knows that the Ukrainian battlefield is part of a global war in which those who control the American empire are trying to maintain their dominance.
For those outside the NATO propaganda bubble, there is general agreement that
- Russia is winning both on the Ukrainian battlefield and in the wider theater.
- Time is on Russia's side.
First the battlefield of Ukraine.
The first objective of war is to destroy the power of the enemy and this is what Russia is doing, especially in the slaughterhouse of Bakhmut. kyiv is determined to stand up and fight here and the Russians are very happy to let them – “ the artillery conquers and the infantry occupies – and that's what we see here. Slowly slowly the Russian forces are advancing on mountains of Ukrainian corps.
Over the past week, Russian forces have also begun advancing on other fronts. This grinding can continue until Ukraine collapses because it is easier for the Russians to let the enemy come to them than to go after them. Meanwhile, Russian missiles are destroying the infrastructure kyiv needs to continue the war. Time and developments favor Russia and there is no incentive to make “big arrow” moves.
On the biggest war against NATO, the sanctions that were supposed to have crushed Russia have exploded and we have headlines like “ Inflation in Europe is falling but food prices are rising "And death from hypothermia England.
Inflation goes down because demand goes down and demand goes down because businesses shut down because of fuel prices . Germany's PMI is down .
Nobody (except the people of the NATO bubble) should be surprised - you sanctioned the biggest energy exporter, the biggest grain exporter and a big potash exporter, did you expect the prices go down? Everything needs energy and everyone needs food.
NATO unity is wavering with Turkey, Sweden and Finland. Hungary officially notesthe suffering of Hungarians in Ukraine.
The partition of Ukraine was envisaged .
Macron suspects that the United States intentionally weakens its European allies. Did Washington just suck Berlin into first – when exactly Will Abrams make it ? NATO draws on its active stocks ( Estonia joins Denmark by sending all its artillery ). (And nobody asks who blew up Nord Stream?) Riots and protests across Europe .
That pass in Kyiv? The longer this lasts, the weaker Russia's enemies become. So in the big war, time and developments favor Russia and there is no incentive to make "big arrow" moves.
Therefore, Russia should keep doing what they are doing and keep the big force in reserve - no reason to change anything - they are attacking their enemies.
More .
How crazy will NATO get? His strategy is a total failure.
The crippling penalties did not collapse the Russian economy, overthrow Putin or uplift the people. On the contrary – when even The Economist has to admit that Russia “ did much better than expected you know it's actually thriving.
Miracle weapons – Bayraktars, Javelins, M777s, HIMARS, Gepards, Patriots and now tanks – have and will only prolong Ukraine's suffering and make Wagner and Akhmat Sila the best urban fighters in the world.
After that ? Can NATO backtrack? Can he survive another loss? Or, as Larry wonders, drive straight into the Grand Canyon? What new madness will he invent when the tanks fail? CNN is concerned –” Think Russian President Vladimir Putin's propaganda victory if footage emerges of disabled US tanks on a Ukrainian battlefield ".)
Therefore, I think the Russian high command is in a continuous decision loop. Every morning he wonders whether to continue with the current strategy or launch the “big arrow” movement to end it before NATO does something hopelessly stupid. It's a careful balancing process.
In short, the Russian high command will continue to do what it does and hold back its reserves until it decides the time is right to commit them. And it's a decision only he can make based on information only he knows.
So, maybe the “big arrow” offensive starts tomorrow or maybe it never needs to be launched.
BONUS
Donbass Debreshnuk podcast where Martyanov was a guest.
The link to the podcast is on Martyanov's blog.
What I took away from both discussions is that Russian military tactics and the range of weapons currently in use and those that have yet to be used are the gold standard of strategy, planning and the best use of combined arms warfare.
Martyanov said he was absolutely stunned by the appalling incompetence of the US military and its related intelligence agencies. There was a complete denial on their part of the understanding of the Russian military arsenal and the state of the weapons both on the battlefield and in reserve. Apparently, two new pieces of equipment are about to be introduced by Russia to the battlefield. The link to the podcast is on Martyanov's blog.
One of the things Martyanov pointed out was that the United States developed weapons ostensibly for public relations about American military power and know-how, not for actual conventional warfare. He also argued that the US military has never had to fight to defend their homeland, so they have no idea what would be needed to defend the kingdom so to speak.
The issue of F16s was discussed these will be delivered to Ukraine but could not be launched from Ukrainian runways as they have all been destroyed. Therefore, they should come from Poland and Romania. Once launched from these airfields, Russia has the absolute and legitimate right to destroy these airfields and it probably will.
source: Brunobertez.com
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