7 scenarios to consider for the 2017 presidential election

Our anonymous Contributor offers us a small prospective page... Afterwards, don't forget that it's the Huffington Post...

Also to compensate, I would like to offer you a 8^e scenario...; ))))

Friendships, ; )

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At the start of the year, seven scenarios can be envisaged for the presidential, from the most probable to the most hypothetical. At this stage, the probable scenario is a fairly clear victory for François Fillon next May, but not necessarily with a considerable advance.

7 scenarios

Four first scenarios seem to be possible: (1) a tidal wave in favor of François Fillon – this is the scenario of a "conservative revolution" with right-wing candidates in the broad sense of the term (François Fillon, Marine Le Pen, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan) who collect between 60 and 65% of the votes in the first round and a Fillon-Le Pen duel in the second round very largely dominated by the Republican candidate; (2) the final victory of Marine Le Pen (3) by Emmanuel Macron or (4) of the socialist candidate. The fifth scenario, unlikely, is the victory of Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Finally, the last two scenarios, highly improbable, would be the victory of a "small" candidate (Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Yannick Jadot, an extreme left candidate, etc.) or that of a "citizen" candidate (for example Alexandre Jardin).

Apart from the victory of François Fillon, it would take quite exceptional circumstances for the other hypotheses to materialize.

A "catastrophe scenario"

Despite everything, we cannot exclude a "catastrophe scenario". This would correspond to a collapse of the political system with a Marine Le Pen arriving at the head of the first round, a Jean-Luc Mélenchon arriving at the head on the left, a virtual disappearance of the center, a general context of radicalization, even of hysterization of electorates, and even a second round Le Pen-Mélenchon, with, in all cases, a final victory for the president of the FN. Such a victory is in any case the scenario envisaged in the Bloomberg's pessimistic forecast for 2017.

Unfortunate political circumstances

Should we fear it? Yes, no doubt, especially if certain conditions are met, first and foremost in the campaign itself. What are they ?

1. The number of candidates running for president is very high, close to the 16 candidates of 2002. This is already partly the case on the left, but it could also be on the right if, for example, Henri Guaino or Michèle Alliot -Marie managed to obtain the necessary sponsorships or even at the center if this was also the case for Rama Yade or if François Bayrou finally decided to present himself. This could lead to a significant dispersion of votes to the detriment of the candidates of the government parties.

2. The campaign is taking place in a deleterious climate where personal attacks, on the model of those which recently targeted Alain Juppé ("Ali Juppé") and now François Fillon ("Farid Fillon"), controversies and slippages leave little room to the debate of ideas, as we saw during the last presidential campaign in the United States.

3. A certain number of websites, in particular the French version of the American site Breitbart News which was launched on the occasion of the presidential election, disseminate false information on the campaign and the candidates which are nevertheless widely taken as such.

4. François Fillon's program fails to convince a large part of the French people and even continues to worry them, in particular on various key points, such as the reform of Social Security, the abolition of civil servant posts, the extension of the duration work or relations with Russia. Most of the candidates target the liberal nature of François Fillon's program on the economic level. The campaign is structured around a liberal-anti-liberal divide. This is also detrimental to the defenders of social-liberalism, Emmanuel Macron and Manuel Valls, and favors the anti-liberals Jean-Luc Mélenchon and especially Marine Le Pen.

5. Another hypothesis, in order to remove concerns about his program, François Fillon decides to refocus it to such an extent that it raises doubts among right-wing voters about his real desire to implement the reforms he announces. National Front voters tempted by a Fillon vote end up giving it up, while right-wing voters feeling cheated finally choose the Le Pen option.

6. Manuel Valls narrowly won the socialist primary in a very tense context between the different candidates. He fails to obtain the support of the losers, who even denounce fraud, nor that of the President of the Republic. He still managed to capture votes on the center-left that could have gone to Emmanuel Macron, but a large part of left-wing voters tipped in favor of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, especially since they said to themselves that, in any case, way, the left has no chance of being present in the second round.

Serious external events

These different political conditions could be aggravated by events outside the campaign, but which could have a significant impact on it:

1. During the campaign, a new mass attack is perpetrated on French territory by French nationals of the Muslim faith claiming to be Daesh and/or, as representatives of the police fear, ultra-right groups commit France an attack targeting Muslim populations. This leads to very strong inter-community and inter-confessional tensions and even clashes.

2. A major scandal affecting a large part of the French political class, including certain presidential candidates, broke out during the campaign.

3. The press denounces a major health scandal by demonstrating that governments on the left, as on the right, have knowingly masked the seriousness of the risks for decades to protect economic interests.

4. The French economic situation is deteriorating rapidly and the outlook is very bleak as the first measures taken by Donald Trump provoke a trade war with China, which leads to a sharp slowdown in the world economy; and the euro zone is once again sinking into crisis given the difficulties encountered by the Italian economy weighed down by the fragility of the transalpine banks.

5. Donald Trump, who takes office on January 20, launches a number of spectacular reforms that are approved by a majority of Americans, triggering a kind of Trumpmania in the country and a certain fascination for him in France.

6. As announced, the UK government is activating Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty at the end of March, officially kicking off Brexit. The short-term economic and political situation in Great Britain tends to show that leaving the European Union does not necessarily lead to the announced catastrophe.

7. The legislative elections in March in the Netherlands give victory for the first time to the populists of the Freedom Party of Geert Wilders. The same is true during the legislative elections organized in Italy following the resignation of Matteo Renzi, where the five-star populist movement of humorist Beppe Grillon comes out on top.

8. The fall of Aleppo, followed by other cities held by rebel forces in Syria, provoked a new massive influx of refugees into Europe, especially as the dissensions between European governments and Turkey led the Ankara government to voluntarily let pass.

Source (s): Huffingtonpost.fr via Anonymous Contributor

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