The reports follow each other and resemble each other, or almost. Like its predecessors, that of the Oxford Economics firm concludes that the robotization of industry could eliminate jobs: 20 million by 2030, or 8,5% of jobs in this sector worldwide. Last April, the OECD estimated that 14% represents a “high risk” of automation. The trend is confirmed: we are moving away from the apocalyptic 47% of the Oxford University study published in 2013. “The fear of a mass destruction of employment by robots seems somewhat exaggerated”, even say the editors of the latest report, "How Robots Change The World", published this week.
Its particularity is to focus on the consequences of physical robots, and not of artificial intelligence in general. The authors also calculated the created value of existing jobs for each machine adopted, hence their optimism despite the number of jobs at risk. “We estimate that a 1% increase in robot stock per worker in the industrial world leads to a 0,1% increase in output per worker. In other words, the savings made with the robots increase the value of the work of those who remain. They thus invite reinvestment to create new jobs that cannot be automated, which would produce a job effect.
This nevertheless constitutes a danger for the least trained professionals who risk not having the skills required for the new positions. The negative consequences on the labor market should be felt more in areas dependent on industry where jobs are less paid: "On average, a new robot displaces nearly twice as many jobs in low-income regions per compared to territories where wages are higher in the same country”, specifies the report
Regions where robotisation is likely to have the most negative consequences on employment are indicated in red.
In France, it is the (former) regions of Franche-Comté, Basse Normandie, Limousin and Picardie which could be the most affected, and particularly trades in storage warehouses. Conversely, Ile-de-France and the Mediterranean basin represent the areas least likely to suffer from robotization.
“At a time when growing economic inequality and ideological polarization raise concerns, these findings have important social and political implications,” the authors point out.
Source (s): Les Echos.fr via Anonymous Contributor
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