11 Reasons Why So Many Experts Believe A US Economic Crisis Is Imminent

The numbers tell us that we have never been closer to the next recession than now. The storm clouds looming on the horizon are now right above us, and suddenly the mainstream media is filled with stories about when the next recession will start and what effect that might have on President Trump's chances of winning in 2020. In fact, there's been so much chatter about it that even President Trump talks about it. All over the television, pundits endlessly speculate on when the next recession will start, and they give lots of advice on how people should prepare for it.

What is the evidence that has led so many of these talking heads to come to such a conclusion?

Well, the following are the 11 reasons why so many experts now believe a US economic crisis is imminent...

#1 Last week, the spread between US 2-year and 10-year yields has turned negative for the very first time in 12 years. An inversion of the yield curve has occurred before every recession in the United States since the 1950s, and it is one of the most important economic signals we have seen so far.

#2 The US consumer confidence index has just fallen to an all-time low that we experienced in 2019.

#3 74% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics estimate that a recession will begin in the United States by the end of 2021.

#4 US industrial production has just fallen in contraction territory.

#5 The IHS Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index just fell to its lowest level since September 2009.

#6 As we saw in 2008, fear and volatility returned to Wall Street in a major way. In fact, so far this month, we have already seen the 4^e and 7^e largest one-day declines in US stock market history.

#7 The total number of bankruptcy filings in the United States has steadily increased, and it still has augmenté de 5% during the month of July.

#8 Major US retailers continue to close a greater number stores and we continued to maintain a pace that would beat the all-time record for store closures in a single year.

#9 As I mentioned here, year-over-year, U.S. freight shipment volume fell for the eighth consecutive year.

#10 The Federal Reserve Bank of New York says the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months is now the highest it has ever seen since the last financial crisis.

#11 President Trump suggests that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates 100 basis points and that the Fed restart quantitative easing as soon as possible. Both of these measures would be considered "emergency measures" that should only be taken if a major economic downturn was imminent.

In this list, I didn't even mention the rapidly escalating trade war with China. The world's two largest economies are embroiled in an extremely bitter trade dispute, which alone threatens to plunge the global economy into a very deep recession.

On the face of it, the Trump administration is trying to assure us that everything will be fine, but behind the scenes it seems to be preparing for the worst. For example, we have just learned that the Trump administration plans to press for an emergency reduction in social charges...

    Several senior White House officials have begun discussing whether a temporary payroll tax cut as a way to halt an economic downturn, three people familiar with the talks said, revealing growing concerns among top economic advisers of President Donald Trump.

    Talks are still in their early stages, and officials have yet to decide whether to formally push Congress to approve the cut, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to disclose internal discussions. But in recent days, the White House has begun looking for proposals that could halt a slowing economy.

If the U.S. economy was truly “booming,” an emergency payroll tax cut would make no sense.

But if we are on the verge of a very serious economic crisis, such a measure would make perfect sense.

Of course, the United States is certainly not the only major economy in serious trouble. In fact, signs of economic turmoil have emerged all over the world lately...

    The economies of Germany, Brazil, Italy, Mexico and a number of other countries are also vulnerable, according to experts. Uncertainty is exacerbated by fears potential financial repercussions if the UK leaves the European Union in October without first reaching an agreement on the terms of its departure.

In particular, the development in Germany is quite worrying. Their economy has actually contracted last quarter, and the German government is preparing to "preparing further fiscal stimulus if its economy sinks into a deep recession"...

    Almost two weeks after Der Spiegel sent its first test balloon on the prospects for fiscal stimulus from the German government in the event of a recession in Europe's largest economy (which, as we explained last week, is already about to do so), the trial balloons have crossed the Atlantic.

    Bloomberg reported on Monday that the German government is set to introduce further fiscal stimulus if its economy slips into a deep recession, "quoting two people with first-hand knowledge of the matter."

It's been a long, long time since we've seen each other talk like that. For many people, the extreme pain caused by the economic crisis of 2008 and 2009 has almost disappeared from living memory, but the truth is that many experts believe that what is to come will be even worse.

If all went well, President Trump would not try to get the Federal Reserve to dramatically cut interest rates. Much more important in life is what people do than what they say, and the actions that world leaders are taking tell us that there are huge problems ahead.

So enjoy the relative stability we're currently experiencing while you still can, as it looks like it won't last too long.

About the author: Michael Snyder is a national writer, media personality and political activist. He is the author of four books including Get Prepared Now, The Beginning Of The End et Living A Life That Really Matters. His articles are originally published on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream et The Most Important News. From there, his articles are republished on dozens of other major websites. If you would like to republish his articles, please do so. The more people who see this information the better, and we need to wake up more people while there is still time.

source: Theeconomiccollapseblog

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